\n<\/p>\n
It has been more than a decade since there was such a small difference between college basketball\u2019s best two teams as Selection Sunday beckons.<\/p>\n
Look at the metrics. Look at the gambling futures. Look at the evidence on our TV screens. It\u2019s nearly impossible to say whether the Duke Blue Devils or the Michigan Wolverines are the favorite to win it all.<\/p>\n
If you go by predictive metrics like KenPom, Duke ranks as roughly a half-point favorite over Michigan. If you go by results-based metrics like Wins Above Bubble, Michigan is a smidge ahead of Duke. If you go by online sportsbooks like Caesars, Duke is listed<\/a> at +325 to cut down the nets on April 6 in Indianapolis at +325 \u2014 but Michigan sits at +325, too.<\/p>\n If you prefer to go by something absurd like on-court results, Duke edged Michigan 68-63 in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 21<\/a> in a game where neither team led by more than eight.<\/p>\n In essence, if this year\u2019s tournament turns into nothing more than Duke and Michigan on an inexorable collision course from opposite sides of the bracket (to be unveiled at 6 p.m. ET Sunday), then we\u2019re destined for an amazing three weeks.<\/p>\n The only way it might be greater is if we get a replay of the last NCAA Tournament with its top two teams virtually indistinguishable \u2014 because that was the last time a wholly unexpected squad stormed to the NCAA title.<\/p>\n That was way back in 2014, when NCAA Tournament committee members were still such troglodytes when it came to metrics that Louisville entered the tournament ranked as KenPom\u2019s No. 1 overall team \u2014 yet received a No. 4 seed.<\/p>\n When the dust settled in Arlington, Texas, 18th-ranked and No. 7 seeded Connecticut claimed the championship while eighth-seeded Kentucky also made the Final Four. Some would argue that\u2019s way more fun than having only No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.<\/p>\n What else can be learned from the 2014 NCAA Tournament that might be applicable as we try to predict what will happen on Selection Sunday? Well, that was the year Wichita State raced through the regular season and the Missouri Valley Conference tournament at 34-0 and was rewarded with a No. 1 seed.<\/p>\nWhat else will happen on Selection Sunday?<\/h2>\n